Jerome “Too Late” Powell should have lowered rates long ago. As usual, he’s “Too Late!”
n
“,”elementId”:”130c8560-619e-4554-808d-4c349f139258″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757082268000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”10.24 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757082436000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.27 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757082436000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”10.27 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”10.27″,”title”:”Trump: Fed should have lowered rates long ago”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68bae64d8f08305da53f8707″,”elements”:[{“displayCredit”:true,”_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement”,”role”:”inline”,”media”:{“allImages”:[{“index”:0,”fields”:{“height”:”2000″,”width”:”3000″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/3000.jpg”},{“index”:1,”fields”:{“isMaster”:”true”,”height”:”2000″,”width”:”3000″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg”},{“index”:2,”fields”:{“height”:”1333″,”width”:”2000″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/2000.jpg”},{“index”:3,”fields”:{“height”:”667″,”width”:”1000″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/1000.jpg”},{“index”:4,”fields”:{“height”:”333″,”width”:”500″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/500.jpg”},{“index”:5,”fields”:{“height”:”93″,”width”:”140″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/140.jpg”}]},”elementId”:”1cd60853-cd6d-475a-bc5b-1aecc6f0c0f1″,”imageSources”:[{“weighting”:”inline”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=c52ec09410c978082c98a68cf6adf1e5″,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=85cdfb8918703c49aefef701de40ecdd”,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=b9fb63ad7484af185e88d20a520ba2ed”,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f6945609d457b859e95b274fca00e89b”,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=6693073727e7aeec5e765014157fb1a3″,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f2e87b9d7f4a95b0aaee6673bb0cb288″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”thumbnail”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=140&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=4f1eab7b2b6fa747d619fe2c3789758a”,”width”:140},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=140&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=b0771f55c2405920cdd517ad25bcc51d”,”width”:280},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=120&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=696a2aa90af53bdf2b2a8d7bf4933810″,”width”:120},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=120&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=4690edb0a05328b3955d7ff56c07a554″,”width”:240}]},{“weighting”:”supporting”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=380&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=32d2e95f1516b6720facd1429d392996″,”width”:380},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=380&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=6a15a27ba1338381676b5d816bf358bd”,”width”:760},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=3fc2d3881b50b5f84dca7439e3aabe25″,”width”:300},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=300&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=d63ac29793194bafc529a8f724dfdec0″,”width”:600},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=c52ec09410c978082c98a68cf6adf1e5″,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=85cdfb8918703c49aefef701de40ecdd”,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=b9fb63ad7484af185e88d20a520ba2ed”,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f6945609d457b859e95b274fca00e89b”,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=6693073727e7aeec5e765014157fb1a3″,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f2e87b9d7f4a95b0aaee6673bb0cb288″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”showcase”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=860&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=bbaf79c01d6c73922f99d05306093117″,”width”:860},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=860&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f00750425d1545f37edcf19841f80c9f”,”width”:1720},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=780&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=ad90e407f566708d232d39f83ab3fcb6″,”width”:780},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=780&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=b96aa53034248adea547b51b32ee228d”,”width”:1560},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=c52ec09410c978082c98a68cf6adf1e5″,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=85cdfb8918703c49aefef701de40ecdd”,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=b9fb63ad7484af185e88d20a520ba2ed”,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f6945609d457b859e95b274fca00e89b”,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=6693073727e7aeec5e765014157fb1a3″,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f2e87b9d7f4a95b0aaee6673bb0cb288″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”halfwidth”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=c52ec09410c978082c98a68cf6adf1e5″,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=85cdfb8918703c49aefef701de40ecdd”,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=b9fb63ad7484af185e88d20a520ba2ed”,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f6945609d457b859e95b274fca00e89b”,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=6693073727e7aeec5e765014157fb1a3″,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f2e87b9d7f4a95b0aaee6673bb0cb288″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”immersive”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=1900&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=b5c51f9d3c9187cfe58a1c79d623ee3a”,”width”:1900},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=1900&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=f5041c28ea000ff565ea5061af9ccef4″,”width”:3800},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=1300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=517a67b3ed78af08c779fbb586519d4a”,”width”:1300},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=1300&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=7bb131aea94efb4309f698d1db3f6bff”,”width”:2600},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=1140&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=4e86ef06400b5a5695acd16aac73a636″,”width”:1140},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=1140&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=5bfe2c44b1592714bc07e8264a8d17a7″,”width”:2280},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=980&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=981e599f34d2f5af1ce1f101576c21f3″,”width”:980},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=980&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=496f1cc275bdfee66c3fb87af6d09ff8″,”width”:1960},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=740&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=ade7fc100ec088f17422fca7c41f6bd3″,”width”:740},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=740&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=5b1e77f103f27e0a8f5fa3d0b2ac1e2e”,”width”:1480},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=660&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=7d65573e1779f3c121889883c2cd81df”,”width”:660},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=660&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=98e7e9030fc74319abc573dded7579bc”,”width”:1320},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=480&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=a58562076cc38e78db694f3076c53cae”,”width”:480},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/57b09c3d921412164836447e54b1f8599b5c62bf/0_0_3000_2000/master/3000.jpg?width=480&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=4f4c1ba21c5b66dc8cb4d9dc93bc1006″,”width”:960}]}],”data”:{“alt”:”The New York Stock Exchange”,”caption”:”The New York Stock Exchange”,”credit”:”Photograph: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Wall Street traders have driven stocks up to a record high at the start of trading in New York.
That’s a surprising reaction to the weak August jobs report, until you remember that investors are now more convinved that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
“The US jobs market is probably the most watched economic data at the moment, having been noted by the Fed as a key indicator.
n
The August data shows a notably lower gain in payrolls than expected and the unemployment rate moved up to 4.3% with the average weekly hours worked falling.
n
There isn’t a huge amount to read into the numbers that is surprising, but it does suggest a weakening jobs market, which will probably nail down a Fed rate cut this month.”
n
“,”elementId”:”3f04439f-83c0-417b-a0a1-a3ddecae14fa”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757079117000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”09.31 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757079463000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”09.37 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757079395000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”09.36 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”09.36″,”title”:”US stock market hits record high after weak jobs report”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68bae1d08f08305da53f86c8″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
August’s employment report confirmed that “the labour market has headed off a cliff-edge,” says BradleySaunders, North America economist at consultancy CapitalEconomics.
Non-farm payrolls rose by just 22,000 last month, while June’s 19,000 increase was revised to show a 27,000 fall – the first out-and-out decline in monthly employment since late 2020.
n
Along with a slight upward nudge to July’s figure, this leaves the three-month average employment gain at 29,000. The private sector added just 38,000 jobs last month, and even this modest figure owed a lot to a 47,000 rise in health care & social assistance employment.
n
Elsewhere, employment fell by 12,000 in both manufacturing and wholesale trade, as tariffs continued to bite. This takes the total toll on manufacturing employment since the start of the year to 78,000, confounding hopes of a tariff-led reshoring renaissance.
n
“,”elementId”:”f2ba5d7b-4acc-41b8-b657-e697ced6fe15″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757077968000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”09.12 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757078155000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”09.15 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757078120000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”09.15 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”09.15″,”title”:”Capital Economics: US labor market has headed off a cliff-edge”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68bae0e58f08a33f6288d89a”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
One of the many pieces of bad news in today’s US jobs report is that manufacturing employment is down by 78,000 over the year.
I'm not a big believer in diving into the industry breakdowns because I believe that all jobs matter.
But the Administration has made dramatic policy shift to boost manufacturing, and it just ain't working. Manufacturing employment fell -12k, and is down -78k over the year.
“}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757077733000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”09.08 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757077946000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”09.12 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757077851000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”09.10 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”09.10″,”title”:”US manufacturing employment down by 78,000 in last year”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68badf778f08305da53f869f”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The weak US jobs report is sending investors racing to buy government bonds, driving up prices and lowering yields.
The yield, or interest rate, on US 30-year bonds has dropped by 6 basis points (0.06 percentage points), with shorter-dated Treasuries also rallying following the news that just 22,000 new jobs were created across the US last month.
The downside, though, is that a weakening US economy is bad news for every other country too….
“,”elementId”:”827af4b3-2de2-4b0d-b00d-5ce0a3f875b6″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757077367000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”09.02 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757077634000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”09.07 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757077635000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”09.07 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”09.07″,”title”:”Bond yields fall after US jobs report misses forecasts”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68bada968f08305da53f866a”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The sharp deterioration in hiring across America in the last few months makes it virtually certain that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting later this month.
“Markets have been pricing in a 0.25% rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy meeting, and today’s softer than expected jobs number may well grant that wish. Total nonfarm payroll employment shows August saw an increase of just 22,000, down markedly from a revised 79,000 in July and far below estimates. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%.
n
“Last month’s payroll data showed large downward revisions to previous months, with May and June’s employment numbers dropping by a combined 258,000 from initial estimates. Today, we have seen a further downward revision to June’s total, taking it from an increase of 14,000 to a decrease of 13,000, and a modest 6,000 upward revision to July’s figure.
n
“Earlier this week, jobless benefit claims ticked higher, and today’s worse than expected payrolls figure cements the fact that the jobs market is weakening significantly. Following the Fed’s decision to hold rates in July, markets had already largely priced in a cut, regardless of today’s numbers. Still, one major obstacle remains. Inflation continues to complicate the Fed’s path, and next week’s CPI print will be critical, especially as several FOMC members remain cautious about easing policy under political pressure. With the full impact of Trump’s tariffs still unfolding, a hotter than expected inflation reading could lead to a split decision later this month.”
The news that non-farm payrolls rose by just 22,000 in August, missing forecast of 75,000 new jobs, has pushed the dollar down against other major currencies.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, has dropped by 0.66%, as this chart shows:
“,”elementId”:”5dad1a92-22c9-4bb1-8e16-36f102970446″},{“displayCredit”:true,”_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement”,”role”:”inline”,”media”:{“allImages”:[{“index”:0,”fields”:{“height”:”861″,”width”:”1917″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/1917.jpg”},{“index”:1,”fields”:{“isMaster”:”true”,”height”:”861″,”width”:”1917″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg”},{“index”:2,”fields”:{“height”:”449″,”width”:”1000″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/1000.jpg”},{“index”:3,”fields”:{“height”:”225″,”width”:”500″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/500.jpg”},{“index”:4,”fields”:{“height”:”63″,”width”:”140″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/140.jpg”}]},”elementId”:”366cb49c-9b40-4202-ba15-948410c3db31″,”imageSources”:[{“weighting”:”inline”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=c751308b4f384fa467ad727c8aeb9daa”,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=3a8ec82df24b00f17e88fc2eb17d6594″,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=9f2013f9c6102d017f64ec1515779668″,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=295578ec5d5891e0373e39bdf498960e”,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=3728746c545742e79c504d09829b1036″,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=0d6727876a084f17ae86ce79ec0b72d4″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”thumbnail”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=140&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=73d19580bb188fbc22e01e5263a1448c”,”width”:140},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=140&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=1b680caab44f275be1ae06f65d35a678″,”width”:280},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=120&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=971aa97eab88ecc1cee89e62669a6075″,”width”:120},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=120&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=739dcf0823dac8bb74dc4cbd6a0465cf”,”width”:240}]},{“weighting”:”supporting”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=380&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=12e045d3f92f4366da8d68b91aa04dae”,”width”:380},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=380&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=980baa571f7d7108ac0664e11b27c969″,”width”:760},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=90063878f215383df68cd3f00ee14536″,”width”:300},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=300&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=ee99c26560376b93a3f53816dff9588d”,”width”:600},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=c751308b4f384fa467ad727c8aeb9daa”,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=3a8ec82df24b00f17e88fc2eb17d6594″,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=9f2013f9c6102d017f64ec1515779668″,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=295578ec5d5891e0373e39bdf498960e”,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=3728746c545742e79c504d09829b1036″,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=0d6727876a084f17ae86ce79ec0b72d4″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”showcase”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=860&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=9d006cb673e89b71173f1e7e39232ead”,”width”:860},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=860&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=db554ed1deaa8a851ab8644e08bd0423″,”width”:1720},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=780&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=ed6d3551cfdcfcba9dbb0bf1c08b12ed”,”width”:780},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=780&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=845310a93b39acc70b0b0d55d32ac3f1″,”width”:1560},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=c751308b4f384fa467ad727c8aeb9daa”,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=3a8ec82df24b00f17e88fc2eb17d6594″,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=9f2013f9c6102d017f64ec1515779668″,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=295578ec5d5891e0373e39bdf498960e”,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=3728746c545742e79c504d09829b1036″,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=0d6727876a084f17ae86ce79ec0b72d4″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”halfwidth”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=c751308b4f384fa467ad727c8aeb9daa”,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=3a8ec82df24b00f17e88fc2eb17d6594″,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=9f2013f9c6102d017f64ec1515779668″,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=295578ec5d5891e0373e39bdf498960e”,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=3728746c545742e79c504d09829b1036″,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=0d6727876a084f17ae86ce79ec0b72d4″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”immersive”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=1900&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=02206ae67735d6a847b91a21712bf1b2″,”width”:1900},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=1900&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=7bed0c6675b76f66fd21e4d4531b0f45″,”width”:3800},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=1300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=c34cae9d0400583811beaf2f568936fc”,”width”:1300},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=1300&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=e4ace931fb44938e1adba18be7098968″,”width”:2600},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=1140&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=f942e852bd17688634d9c98290343682″,”width”:1140},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=1140&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=55e3996ae20384318c90d331962cc835″,”width”:2280},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=980&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=e4f227dba79526c152552cf196258e4c”,”width”:980},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=980&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=4a8bd46f542d43da54964eb583ce4bf8″,”width”:1960},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=740&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=c716f1088e7f13db7a6def5901a411f1″,”width”:740},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=740&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=b05fb7bfa51a5d862cf8430cc6e5be73″,”width”:1480},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=660&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=2bcfecf8d027ff9bad19f849ae2c183a”,”width”:660},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=660&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=8e1dbfea928459000bfe5bd2e75269d3″,”width”:1320},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=480&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=c65024a8c47356e243d7e7192417797f”,”width”:480},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a190815962c92e02eab7712c2294ac7b9fea94/0_0_1917_861/master/1917.jpg?width=480&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=8d9e5afc7ebfe0437d6f21329590afdb”,”width”:960}]}],”data”:{“alt”:”The dollar index”,”caption”:”The dollar index today”,”credit”:”Illustration: LSEG”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757076249000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”08.44 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757076613000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”08.50 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757076613000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”08.50 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”08.50″,”title”:”Dollar slumps after weak jobs report”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68bad96e8f08abd04b4cfaf6″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The BLS reports that the US healthcare section added 31,000 jobs in August, which is below the average monthly gain of 42,000 over the prior 12 months.
But there was a 15,000 drop in employment in federalgovernment. This area has now lost 97,000 jobs since its peak in January. That may not capture the full impact of the DOGE job cuts, as employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed.
Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including construction, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and other services.
n
“,”elementId”:”c5a330a4-82a3-4ed4-ac7f-73c4d5871f92″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757075822000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”08.37 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757076093000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”08.41 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757076094000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”08.41 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”08.41″,”title”:”Where jobs were created, or lost, in August”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68bad8e98f08305da53f8649″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Ooof! Today’s non-farm payroll report also shows that America actually shed jobs in June.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 27,000, from +14,000 to -13,000.
July’s Payroll report has been revised up by 6,000, from +73,000 to +79,000.
“,”elementId”:”1d08febf-63d7-4bf2-af20-75e12351cc25″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757075689000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”08.34 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757075774000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”08.36 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757075774000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”08.36 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”08.36″,”title”:”US economy lost jobs in June!”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68bad73d8f08a33f6288d80f”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Newsflash: The US economy added much fewer jobs than expected last month, in a sign that the labor market may be cooling sharply.
August’s Non-Farm Payroll is forecast to show a 75,000 increase in employment last month, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 4.3%.
That would be a very small increase on July’s NFP report, which rose by 73,000 (along with substantial revisions to May and June’s data) – prompting DonaldTrump to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics a month ago.
“,”elementId”:”b9ba32c6-9810-4b52-aa5c-a06c9f28bbe1″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Why Trump’s firing of the US jobs chief has economists worried”,”elementId”:”1b0b7336-3163-4ebb-8211-b8ccdd5ee60a”,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/04/trump-bureau-labor-statistics-chief”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Another weak report today will put sizeable pressure on the US Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates, while a strong NFP would complicate the picture.
We have been in the camp of a summer slowdown in employment, and we retain the view. The initial NFP release is a bit of a random number and this data would be taken with a grain of salt given the recent changes at the BLS.
n
In our view, market reaction would be bit of a barbell strategy. An inline or slightly weaker number would be good for risky assets. If the number is too low (less than 20k) it would raise concerns over the health of the economy. If it’s too high (above 150K), it would raise concerns over the ability of the Fed to cut rates.
n
“,”elementId”:”51ab9a7d-8be9-4d51-8fcf-b1e4a8306d06″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757073176000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”07.52 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757074276000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”08.11 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757073533000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.58 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.58″,”title”:”US jobs report: a preamble”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68bac5e38f08a33f6288d679″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Tesla’s proposed $1tn pay deal for Elon Musk is “a massive package without precedent in corporate America”, says Bloomberg.
The plan dangles afinancial windfall and expanded control of the company to Musk, already the world’s richest person, after his 2018 package valued in excess of $50 billion was struck down by a Delaware court.
n
While Tesla appeals that decision, the board is seeking other ways to compensate its CEO, including with an interim stock award in early August valued at about $30 billion.
Musk would have to boost Tesla’s market capitalisation to $8.5tn from $1.09tn today. That is more than twice that of Nvidia, currently the most valuable company in the world at $4.2tn.
Tesla’s board has proposed a new pay package for Elon Musk which would allow their chief executive to earn a staggering $1 trillion, if he hits a series of demanding targets.
The plan could see Musk awarded shares totalling 12% of Tesla’s total stock, if he engineers a surge in its value, grows its profits, and hits various operational goals.
They argue that Tesla can help bring about a society that “democratizes autonomous goods and services”, by creating and selling “innovative and affordable technologies at scale”
We believe that Elon’s singular vision is vital to navigating this critical inflection point. We also recognize the formidable nature of this undertaking and as a result, the importance of having a leader who is not only willing and capable but eager to meet this challenge.
n
Simply put, retaining and incentivizing Elon is fundamental to Tesla achieving these goals and becoming the most valuable company in history.
Under the plan, Musk would collect shares in instalment as Tesla’s value rises, from around $1tn today. To hit the maximum share payout, he needs to raise Tesla’s market capitalization to $8.5tn.
Installments of the pay packet will also pay out if Tesla delivers 20m vehicles, sells 10m active FSD subscriptions, sells a million AI robots, gets 1m Robotaxis into Commercial operation, or makes $400bn in adjusted EBITDA profits.
“If Elon achieves all the performance milestones under this principle-based 2025 CEO Performance Award, his leadership will propel Tesla to become the most valuable company in history.”
n
“,”elementId”:”fbe4f62c-9972-4b7c-b0bd-a2bd30d0347e”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757069023000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”06.43 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757070449000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.07 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757069862000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”06.57 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”06.57″,”title”:”Tesla proposes $1tn pay package for Elon Musk”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68ba9bc38f08df82245925f7″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The London stock market is ending the week on the front foot.
Housebuilders BarrattRedrow (+1.45%) and BerkeleyGroup (+1.4%) are among the risers, following Halifax’s house price data…. and a statement from Berkeley that it is on track to hit its profit guidance this year.
“,”elementId”:”3887c74b-9ede-459d-a0cf-5aa44ece11ca”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757060035000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”04.13 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757060213000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”04.16 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757060213000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”04.16 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”04.16″,”title”:”Housebuilder shares help to lift FTSE 100″,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68ba91428f08bfd6d85c14c3″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The delay in publishing today’s retail sales data, alongside the large historical revisions due to the ONS’s errors, only add to the questions around the quality of the data, says Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club.
“The publication of today’s release was delayed by two weeks to ‘allow for further quality assurance’. The ONS revealed that this was to correct an error in its seasonal adjustment process. As a result, today’s release showed downward revisions to the level of sales in most months over the past couple of years, with some very large downgrades to specific months.
n
The most noteworthy were a 1.8ppt revision to the level of sales in January 2025 and a 1.7ppt cut to the April estimate. The new profile looks more credible, but it’s hard to have much confidence in the data when such fundamental errors have been made, and the revisions are so significant.
Retail analyst NickBubb, a long-time critic of the numbers produced by “Planet ONS”, has concerns about its non-seasonally adjusted data (which hasn’t been revised today):
The City expected a modest 0.2% increase in month-on-month seasonally adjusted sales volumes, so the 0.6% increase should please economists (although our friends at Capital Economics have said, in response, that “talk of tax rises ahead of the Budget may yet hold back retail and housing”), but there will be more interest in the big changes in the ONS ‘seasonal adjustment’ techniques, which means, for example, that the bizarre 2.8% dip reported for May has now been revised to a drop of only 1.0%, while the 1.7% increase in April has now been revised down to a 0.4% fall…
n
“Supermarkets had the largest contribution to headline correction and revision over the last 12 months’, according to the wretched ONS, but it also says, disappointingly, that ‘retail sales non-seasonally adjusted data are unaffected by this, as they refer to raw data where the effects of regular or seasonal patterns have not been removed’.
n
For us the main problem has always been the accuracy of the underlying sales value figures and our concerns have not been addressed: the Small Retailer sales figures in general have looked too optimistic for some time (implying sampling problems) and the Large Food Retailer sales figures in particular still look much too low in recent months (implying a lack of common sense at the ONS, in terms of cross-checking the widely available industry figures from the BRC-KPMG, as well as KantarWorldpanel and NIQ).
n
“,”elementId”:”aea66c62-d72b-4e40-bb02-089f770f2bcd”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757057346000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”03.29 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757061025000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”04.30 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757057728000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”03.35 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”03.35″,”title”:”Experts: ‘hard to have confidence’ in ONS data”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68ba87118f083127d2c22c3e”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The ONS’s director-general has apologised for the error discovered in the UK’s retail sales data (see earlier post), and the two-week delay getting today’s report.
JamesBenford, who was parachuted into the statistics body this year to lead its turnaround plan, explains that the approach to seasonal adjustment of retail sales is “unusually complex”.
Benford adds that the ONS will conduct “a full lessons-learned exercise” and improve its processes and procedures to make sure the error will not be repeated.
Many retailers report their sales on a ‘retail calendar’ basis which split the year into planning and reporting periods that have the same number of weekends, which tend to have a larger percentage of sales, and consistently align holidays and shopping events, such as Easter and Black Friday, each year. Reflecting that, our retail sales figures are collected for blocks of four weeks, four weeks and then five weeks (a ‘4-4-5′ approach) and can both sit within a month or span multiple months. This adds complexity to our seasonal adjustment process, given the need to align the collected data to calendar months. The process is complicated further by the pattern of the blocks of four and five weeks sometimes changing.
n
Our review revealed that we had not seasonally adjusted data correctly because we did not properly account for the adjustment in retail reporting calendars. We have now corrected for this mistake.
n
“,”elementId”:”5a830c13-bc97-4005-b6a2-63ae33e5202d”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757054737000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.45 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757055405000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”02.56 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757055405000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.56 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.56″,”title”:”ONS’s director-general apologises for retail sales error”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68ba82b18f08bfd6d85c1474″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
UK house prices have hit a new record high, lender Halifax has reported this morning.
“The story of the housing market in 2025 has been one of stability. Since January, prices have risen by less than £600, underlining how steady the market has been despite wider economic pressures.
n
Affordability remains a challenge, but there are signs of improvement. Interest rates have been on a gradual downward path for nearly two years, and many of the most competitive fixed-rate mortgage deals now offer rates below 4%.
n
Combined with strong wage growth – which has outpaced house price inflation for nearly three years – this is giving more prospective buyers the confidence to take the next step. Summer is typically a quieter period for the market, so the recent rise in mortgage approvals to a six-month high is an encouraging sign of underlying demand.”
However, rival lender Nationwide reported earlier this week that house prices fell in August, as high mortgage costs dampened activity, so the picture isn’t entirely clear….
“,”elementId”:”29460277-4c93-4a7f-a540-a9a9eed2ecba”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”UK house prices in surprise fall amid high mortgage costs”,”elementId”:”d4929503-a2be-44da-b98b-b264df8fc455″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/money/2025/sep/01/uk-house-prices-fall-mortgage-costs-august-nationwide”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757054375000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.39 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757054423000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”02.40 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757054423000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.40 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.40″,”title”:”Halifax: house prices at record high”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68ba77558f08df82245924df”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
The latest non-farm payroll data is expected to show a slowdown in hiring – economists predict a rise of 75,000 in August. That would be slightly higher than the disappointing 73,000 increase reported in July – which spurred Donald Trump to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
“,”elementId”:”0d0d88a3-975d-4e18-8746-64869a697482″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Why Trump’s firing of the US jobs chief has economists worried”,”elementId”:”455bc7ea-1481-459a-bb42-68149d6fecf7″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/04/trump-bureau-labor-statistics-chief”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The US unemployment rate is set to tick up to 4.3%, from 4.2%
We know the Fed has placed weight on the NFP outcome, so naturally market players are fixated on it too. This suggests the period around payrolls will be messy from a price action perspective, with algos reacting immediately to the numbers and liquidity thinning out.
n
How markets ultimately react is tough to plan for — the first move may not be the final move. The clear tactical play is to hold out and put money to work in trades once the collective has had some time to truly digest the data, assess its implications for Fed policy, and consider whether it possibly fuels concerns that the Fed is behind the curve or even that the labour market is perhaps more resilient than feared…
“,”elementId”:”1f206ebf-2860-4814-a476-3b9e632d91f1″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757054375000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.39 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757054110000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”02.35 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757054375000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.39″,”title”:”Introduction: US jobs report in focus”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”},{“id”:”68ba7dfe8f08df8224592513″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Newsflash: Britain’s blundering statistics body has revealed another mistake with the data it produces to track the UK economy.
The blunder relates to the treatment of “calendar effects”, such as the timing of Easter (which moves between March and April), and to the way that its default data collection periods are aligned to calendar months.
ONS basically say the reason for the issues with quality assurance was seasonal adjustment by calendar month rather than trading month (the 4-4-5 split). ONS say they will switch to calendar month collection at the end of 2026.
The ONS, which insists seasonal adjustment is important, reveals that the treatment of these holiday effects and “phase shift” effects were not properly accounted for between January and May this year.
The corrections mean that retail sales were actually lower than previously recorded in January, February, April and June, this chart from the ONS shows:
“,”elementId”:”2182de02-5517-4d28-92ef-eb10f3d710d7″},{“displayCredit”:true,”_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement”,”role”:”inline”,”media”:{“allImages”:[{“index”:0,”fields”:{“height”:”549″,”width”:”700″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/700.jpg”},{“index”:1,”fields”:{“isMaster”:”true”,”height”:”549″,”width”:”700″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg”},{“index”:2,”fields”:{“height”:”392″,”width”:”500″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/500.jpg”},{“index”:3,”fields”:{“height”:”110″,”width”:”140″},”mediaType”:”Image”,”mimeType”:”image/jpeg”,”url”:”https://media.guim.co.uk/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/140.jpg”}]},”elementId”:”4eb68b2d-fe18-4a23-8186-0df8cc6c1218″,”imageSources”:[{“weighting”:”inline”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=fe707db929cb61cf26c6f88d13f82a9d”,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=d88bbfd98ff1c6a11e07aef48fc673fa”,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=0752bda7f7af1b6739d9e6d102f680ba”,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=68e822047c832ce9305dff3b4e00f50a”,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5a3d29146fae03477052da85dae4b8ae”,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=7a4af7ce51ec74bcd3721b90baeec4f2″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”thumbnail”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=140&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=00d9db68ebc5b6c331aeba0e044e741d”,”width”:140},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=140&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=6790f7a8751d44056fad2c85a4019d9a”,”width”:280},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=120&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=3e4f907c3c131f3756eb71748426ed85″,”width”:120},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=120&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=0f77e15bdc33e9ebc9852e8a770fea7d”,”width”:240}]},{“weighting”:”supporting”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=380&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=bfcaf922dc74aef98b491e1c87815148″,”width”:380},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=380&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=7f80a14604131507229c2abf2debae9d”,”width”:760},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=cdbcbbe9b4523787fe6e04ee443e6d8f”,”width”:300},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=300&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=22f9fd394da1d7639738ba9b3596d49b”,”width”:600},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=fe707db929cb61cf26c6f88d13f82a9d”,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=d88bbfd98ff1c6a11e07aef48fc673fa”,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=0752bda7f7af1b6739d9e6d102f680ba”,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=68e822047c832ce9305dff3b4e00f50a”,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5a3d29146fae03477052da85dae4b8ae”,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=7a4af7ce51ec74bcd3721b90baeec4f2″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”showcase”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=860&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=b5976e90a7415fd53c036d986be9f70b”,”width”:860},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=860&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=b6c1d83671eff09efadd44aed019edcf”,”width”:1720},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=780&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=e328f8708391edbba2eb37dddd66aacd”,”width”:780},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=780&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=2b668d91c9add708721ebe395b121f3e”,”width”:1560},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=fe707db929cb61cf26c6f88d13f82a9d”,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=d88bbfd98ff1c6a11e07aef48fc673fa”,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=0752bda7f7af1b6739d9e6d102f680ba”,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=68e822047c832ce9305dff3b4e00f50a”,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5a3d29146fae03477052da85dae4b8ae”,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=7a4af7ce51ec74bcd3721b90baeec4f2″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”halfwidth”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=fe707db929cb61cf26c6f88d13f82a9d”,”width”:620},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=d88bbfd98ff1c6a11e07aef48fc673fa”,”width”:1240},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=605&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=0752bda7f7af1b6739d9e6d102f680ba”,”width”:605},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=605&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=68e822047c832ce9305dff3b4e00f50a”,”width”:1210},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=445&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5a3d29146fae03477052da85dae4b8ae”,”width”:445},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=7a4af7ce51ec74bcd3721b90baeec4f2″,”width”:890}]},{“weighting”:”immersive”,”srcSet”:[{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=1900&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=cc30848c20a6d7240cfd97cba6b5ae36″,”width”:1900},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=1900&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=25b3251aed36e196d3c1ebc17fba0b9e”,”width”:3800},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=1300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=a3ddc83e35e56356a0a0e967b80b91b0″,”width”:1300},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=1300&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=bb0f1e78aed030342c88a3ef303980d3″,”width”:2600},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=1140&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=823fc56aeb5d4db5a4dc905249ec2ee9″,”width”:1140},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=1140&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=58ab881639172723f31320a8a5cc9073″,”width”:2280},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=980&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=b976899a988eb54b80943497a1b961cd”,”width”:980},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=980&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=ba1b8f16e293a15c2c6cb2b76190e167″,”width”:1960},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=740&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=f5728d3cbd93995a497021a7ee2e5254″,”width”:740},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=740&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=a18b66ae29aa1624265598844aa769e1″,”width”:1480},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=660&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=6b2fd498f07a90e6db4ea1f61047b4f1″,”width”:660},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=660&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=40e48758eaa652d87f22b7b159c91369″,”width”:1320},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=480&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=ca6026cd07656c4dbf11a3aaf9b30ac1″,”width”:480},{“src”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8d975f7e69f975574fdd9a11d2a72d795af12153/0_0_700_549/master/700.jpg?width=480&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=517e7a66976024b4045d3df49d8aecee”,”width”:960}]}],”data”:{“alt”:”A chart showing adjustments to the UK’s retail sales”,”credit”:”Photograph: ONS”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Today’s data also shows that the volume of goods bought by shoppers fell by 0.6% in the three months to July 2025 when compared with the three months to April 2025.
But in July alone, retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.6%, following an increase of 0.3% in June 2025.
“,”elementId”:”c4bb23a5-617e-4b53-84b0-eb4e43ab190d”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1757054375000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.39 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1757055240000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”02.54 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1757054375000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.39″,”title”:”ONS reveals error with its seasonally adjusted retail sales”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Fri 5 Sep 2025 11.30 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Fri 5 Sep 2025 02.39 EDT”}],”filterKeyEvents”:false,”id”:”key-events-carousel-mobile”,”absoluteServerTimes”:false,”renderingTarget”:”Web”}”>
Key events
Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature
The gold price has hit yet another record high today, after the weak US jobs report.
Gold traded as high as $3,597.66 per ounce, extending its recent rally driven by investors seeking protection from inflation.
Mohamed A. El-Erian, advisor to Allianz, reports that “gold prices continue to march higher.”
Post–U.S. jobs data, government bond yields are down, the yield curve has steepened, and oil prices are lower — all consistent with historical patterns and correlations. Less in line with past experience, and indicative of some broader structural shifts, gold prices continue to… pic.twitter.com/5yZ60O50fe
Post–U.S. jobs data, government bond yields are down, the yield curve has steepened, and oil prices are lower — all consistent with historical patterns and correlations. Less in line with past experience, and indicative of some broader structural shifts, gold prices continue to… pic.twitter.com/5yZ60O50fe
PresidentTrump is wrong to put the blame on the Fed for the latest employment figures, ProfessorCostasMilas of University of Liverpool’s management school, tells us.
A new academic paper finds that Chicago’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and economic uncertainty measures have good real-time forecasting power for the US employment. Now then: NCI is currently no worse than when Trump won in November; however the monthly EPU is very much elevated thanks to Trump’s economic policies.
Put together, these measures point to some slowdown in employment, triggered by Trump’s policies. So, a 25 basis points interest rate cut seems a reasonable hedge later this month!
Arthur Laffer, Jr, President atLaffer Tengler Investments, says a shift is taking place in the US economy due to government cuts, and the AI boom.
Laffer says:
Some of the impact is coming from the DOGE initiatives as Federal workers who took buyouts leave their jobs but also interesting in the numbers is the decline in manufacturing jobs.
We believe that this is being caused by two factors: tariffs and AI adoption. The tariff changes have impacted some businesses much more than others. The traditional legacy manufacturing base in the US is having to adjust to the tariff impacts by reducing costs mostly through automation and robotics. New and emerging manufacturing is implementing AI/robotics at a faster and higher rate to drive efficiency and cost reductions.
Trump: Fed should have lowered rates long ago
Donald Trump has found someone to blame for the slump in hiring in his first year in office.
Posting on his Truth Social site, the president says:
Jerome “Too Late” Powell should have lowered rates long ago. As usual, he’s “Too Late!”
Another cause of the jobs slowdown, of course, could be the uncertainty and upheaval caused by the US trade war.
Isaac Stell, investment manager at Wealth Club, says:
“A rate cut in September is now a forgone conclusion following a weaker than anticipated jobs report. Not only are today’s figures showing that cracks are appearing in the labour market but revisions to prior months job reports show the picture is far less rosy than previously thought. The unemployment rate is also an area of concern hitting its highest level since October 2021.
The US has been through a myriad of trials recently, so it is no surprise that employers remain cautious on hiring, given the uncertainty over tariffs, trade and immigration policies.
One theory for the slowdown in the US jobs market is that companies are deploying AI systems rather than taking on more staff.
Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments, explains:
We believe companies are investing in technology instead of human capital. We heard this from the companies during earnings, we see it in the business investment capex, which was up dramatically in the quarter and driven almost 50% by technology spending.
This is consistent with our thesis for the last four years, that draws an analogy to the 1990s and the productivity-driven boom that drove the economy and stock market for the second half of the decade.
This chart from ING shows how the US jobs market has slowed in 2025:
A chart showing the US non-farm payroll Illustration: ING
They say:
Another soft jobs report is intensifying calls for meaningful Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Consumers are already worried about squeezed spending power from tariffs and are now increasingly concerned about job security. Fed doves will intensify their calls for action
The weakness in the US jobs market could encourage some policymakers at the Fed to consider a jumbo interest rate cut, rather than just quarter-point reduction to rates.
Janet Mui, head of market analysis at wealth manager RBC Brewin Dolphin, explains:
“The addition of just 22,000 jobs in August underscores a clear cooling trend in the U.S. labour market.
Manufacturing payrolls, which are particularly sensitive to tariffs, saw further declines and have now dropped by 42,000 since April this year.
This weak print is politically awkward for the administration, which has focused heavily on job creation via tariff-led industrial policy. With clear signs of slack emerging, today’s U.S. jobs report gives a potential green light for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September. There is even chatter that a jumbo 50bps rate cut is on the table, depending on next week’s inflation data.
Investors are increasingly positioning for a shift toward looser monetary policy, with Fed funds rate expectations dipping below to 2.8% by the end of 2026.”
US stock market hits record high after weak jobs report
The New York Stock Exchange Photograph: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
Wall Street traders have driven stocks up to a record high at the start of trading in New York.
The S&P 500 share index, and the tech-focused Nasdaq share index have both touched intraday record highs as soon as the opening trading bell was rung.
That’s a surprising reaction to the weak August jobs report, until you remember that investors are now more convinved that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at PremierMitonInvestors, explains:
“The US jobs market is probably the most watched economic data at the moment, having been noted by the Fed as a key indicator.
The August data shows a notably lower gain in payrolls than expected and the unemployment rate moved up to 4.3% with the average weekly hours worked falling.
There isn’t a huge amount to read into the numbers that is surprising, but it does suggest a weakening jobs market, which will probably nail down a Fed rate cut this month.”
Here’s another example of how the US jobs market has weakened:
The labor market is going from frozen to cracking.
Look at how many industries have LOST jobs in the past 3 months.
Mining -13,000 Construction -10,000 Manufacturing -31,000 Information -15,000 Business/Professional -51,000 Federal gov't -34,000 Finance 0 job gains
Capital Economics: US labor market has headed off a cliff-edge
August’s employment report confirmed that “the labour market has headed off a cliff-edge,” says BradleySaunders, North America economist at consultancy CapitalEconomics.
Saunders told clients:
Non-farm payrolls rose by just 22,000 last month, while June’s 19,000 increase was revised to show a 27,000 fall – the first out-and-out decline in monthly employment since late 2020.
Along with a slight upward nudge to July’s figure, this leaves the three-month average employment gain at 29,000. The private sector added just 38,000 jobs last month, and even this modest figure owed a lot to a 47,000 rise in health care & social assistance employment.
Elsewhere, employment fell by 12,000 in both manufacturing and wholesale trade, as tariffs continued to bite. This takes the total toll on manufacturing employment since the start of the year to 78,000, confounding hopes of a tariff-led reshoring renaissance.
US manufacturing employment down by 78,000 in last year
One of the many pieces of bad news in today’s US jobs report is that manufacturing employment is down by 78,000 over the year.
That shows that Donald Trump’s promises of a factory resurgence have not yet been delivered.
I'm not a big believer in diving into the industry breakdowns because I believe that all jobs matter.
But the Administration has made dramatic policy shift to boost manufacturing, and it just ain't working. Manufacturing employment fell -12k, and is down -78k over the year.
I’m not a big believer in diving into the industry breakdowns because I believe that all jobs matter.
But the Administration has made dramatic policy shift to boost manufacturing, and it just ain’t working. Manufacturing employment fell -12k, and is down -78k over the year.
Bond yields fall after US jobs report misses forecasts
The weak US jobs report is sending investors racing to buy government bonds, driving up prices and lowering yields.
The yield, or interest rate, on US 30-year bonds has dropped by 6 basis points (0.06 percentage points), with shorter-dated Treasuries also rallying following the news that just 22,000 new jobs were created across the US last month.
UK government debt is benefitting too, just days after a painful sell-off.
Today, UK 30-year gilt yields have dropped by 5bps to 5.528%, the lowest since 18 August 18.
Benchmark 10-year UK bonds have also hit their strongest level since 18 August; they’re down 6bps at 4.668%.
That’s good news for chancellor RachelReeves – lower borrowing costs will mean the ‘black hole’ in her budget calculations will be smaller.
The downside, though, is that a weakening US economy is bad news for every other country too….
“There’s barely been any job growth in the past 4 months,” points out HeatherLong, chief economist at credit union NavyFederal.
Responding to today’s weak US jobs report, Long posts:
Almost all the jobs added are in healthcare. Without healthcare, job growth would be NEGATIVE in the past few months.
The Federal Reserve has to cut in September. And maybe October now.
The US economy lost -13,000 jobs in June –>The first negative month since December 2020 (!)
There's barely been any job growth in the past 4 months.
The sharp deterioration in hiring across America in the last few months makes it virtually certain that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting later this month.
But as Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot explains, inflation could complicate the decision:
“Markets have been pricing in a 0.25% rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy meeting, and today’s softer than expected jobs number may well grant that wish. Total nonfarm payroll employment shows August saw an increase of just 22,000, down markedly from a revised 79,000 in July and far below estimates. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%.
“Last month’s payroll data showed large downward revisions to previous months, with May and June’s employment numbers dropping by a combined 258,000 from initial estimates. Today, we have seen a further downward revision to June’s total, taking it from an increase of 14,000 to a decrease of 13,000, and a modest 6,000 upward revision to July’s figure.
“Earlier this week, jobless benefit claims ticked higher, and today’s worse than expected payrolls figure cements the fact that the jobs market is weakening significantly. Following the Fed’s decision to hold rates in July, markets had already largely priced in a cut, regardless of today’s numbers. Still, one major obstacle remains. Inflation continues to complicate the Fed’s path, and next week’s CPI print will be critical, especially as several FOMC members remain cautious about easing policy under political pressure. With the full impact of Trump’s tariffs still unfolding, a hotter than expected inflation reading could lead to a split decision later this month.”
