Super Group raises full-year guidance as Q3 exceeds expectations, US exit to close in Q4

Super Group has increased its full-year group revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance after a stronger-than-expected performance during the third quarter.

For the 12 months to 31 December 2025, ex-US group revenue is forecast to hit between $2.13 billion (€1.80 billion) and $2.20 billion. This is up almost 8% from its previous guidance of at least $2.04 billion.

Meanwhile, ex-US group adjusted EBITDA is now expected to range between $550 million and $560 million, up from between $470 million and $480 million.

The group’s full Q3 results will not conclude until 30 September. However, after analysing its performance so far in Q3, Super Group on Thursday reported the strength of its performance had allowed it to raise guidance ahead of time.

According to Super Group, it has outperformed prior expectations “despite what is usually a softer seasonal period”. It cited continued momentum in sports betting, optimised pricing and more efficient trading, as well as consistent engagement in casino and improving operational leverage across core international markets.

The operator said this continued momentum reinforced confidence in its full-year outlook. As such, it raised full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA, although this excludes US operations.

“Our performance through the third quarter continues to demonstrate the resilience of our model and the strength of our execution,” CEO Neal Menashe said of the revised guidance.

“We’re seeing strong contributions from both sports and casino, deeper customer engagement and continued margin improvement across key markets.

“As a result, we’re pleased to raise our full-year outlook and remain confident in our ability to deliver for our shareholders.”

The increased guidance comes after Super Group, in June, announced it would pull out of the US market. The business is expected to close in early Q4.

Super Group has been offering iGaming in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. However, it elected to withdraw from the country due to “regulatory shifts impacting long-term US expected profitability”. The decision came one year after it also ceased sports betting in the US.

In its latest update, Super Group said it expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of approximately $25 million for the US business in 2025, in relation to the divestment. But its US revenue will come in at over $40 million for the year.

In Q2, North America, including its business in Canada, accounted for $199 million of overall revenue. However, US operations generated an EBITDA loss of $5.4 million.

On the flip side, increased activity in Africa, Europe and North America markets led to record quarterly revenue for Super Group. Total revenue for Q2 was 30% higher year-on-year at $579.4 million.

In addition, total adjusted EBITDA for Super Group in Q2 stood at a quarterly record of $156.7 million, a 78% increase. This was despite the US decline.

Speaking after the Q2 announcement, Menashe said the US exit will ultimately aid the company in the future. He said: “While our decision to exit the US was difficult, we believe that this step demonstrates our commitment to capital efficiency and long-term profitability.

“With continued focus on scaling our technology globally, Super Group should be even better positioned for sustained, profitable growth.”