Marketers are feeling less confident about proving AI ROI. According to Jasper’s “State of AI Marketing in 2026” report, just 41% say they can demonstrate return, down from 49% last year.
At first glance, that looks like AI is losing momentum. It’s not. The definition of ROI has simply changed.
When AI was new, productivity gains and increased output counted as success. Now that AI is embedded in core operations, executives want economic impact — revenue growth, margin improvement, measurable business lift. As standards rise, confidence naturally dips.
Retail illustrates the shift. The share of retail marketers who say they can prove AI ROI fell from 54% to 38%, even though AI usage remains strong. Adoption alone no longer translates to perceived value. Measurement rigor matters.
And when marketers do measure properly, the returns are significant. Sixty percent of those who can prove ROI report at least 2x returns. Among enterprises with more than $10 billion in revenue, that jumps to 79%.
The drop in confidence isn’t regression. It’s maturity. AI is no longer judged as a productivity experiment — it’s judged as a business investment. Those who treat it that way are seeing outsized returns.
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About the author
Constantine von Hoffman is senior editor of MarTech. A veteran journalist, Con has covered business, finance, marketing and tech for CBSNews.com, Brandweek, CMO, and Inc. He has been city editor of the Boston Herald, news producer at NPR, and has written for Harvard Business Review, Boston Magazine, Sierra, and many other publications. He has also been a professional stand-up comedian, given talks at anime and gaming conventions on everything from My Neighbor Totoro to the history of dice and boardgames, and is author of the magical realist novel John Henry the Revelator. He lives in Boston with his wife, Jennifer, and either too many or too few dogs.
