Meet the top MLB prospects who could force a blockbuster trade at the Winter Meetings

MLB Winter Meetings take place next week in Orlando. That is typically when trade and free agency conversations really begin to ramp up. A handful of major dominoes have already fallen — Dylan Cease to Toronto, Sonny Gray to Boston, Devin Williams to Queens — but all in all, the real meat of the offseason doesn’t begin to cook until GMs file into the same hotel and start chatting.

There are typically two layers to each blockbuster trade: the established star and the elite prospect(s) used to acquire him. Tarik Skubal, MacKenzie Gore, Ketel Marte and Byron Buxton highlight are just a few of the names generating traction in the rumor mill right now. These prospects could define the offseason’s boldest swings.

LHP Hunter Barco, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates are notoriously bad when it comes to developing hitters internally. That means GM Ben Cherington probably needs to look outside the organization if he wants to meaningfully change Pittsburgh’s fortunes in 2026. Konnor Griffin, the 19-year-old shortstop phenom expected to compete for an Opening Day role next spring, cannot carry the Pirates on his own.

Several names are connected to Pittsburgh in the latest trade market breakdown from ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Ketel Marte, Byron Buxton, Jarren Duran, Brendan Donovan. The message clear: Pittsburgh will operate aggressively within its budget. In order to do so, the Pirates may need to tap into the greatest strength of their farm system: pitching.

Paul Skenes has already broken out. Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler should both contribute at a high level in ’26. The next in line, perhaps, is No. 4 Pirates prospect Hunter Barco. The lefty made a brief cameo for the MLB squad at the end of last season, pitching three scoreless innings out of the pen, but he still projects as a starter long-term.

Barco shoves a mid-90s fastball and recently adopted a splitter, but his best weapon is a low-80s slider. The 24-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022, but has gradually ramped up his production and durability in the years since. He’s due for an expanded MLB opportunity next season, and could serve as tantalizing trade bait as the Pirates attempt to swap excess pitching for a potent bat.

C Harry Ford, Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners have expressed interest in Brendan Donovan and could be in the running for other top bats. Yes, a lineup opener of Ketel Marte, Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh is extremely appealing to me, personally. The M’s are equipped with plenty of pitching up and down the organizational ladder, but in terms of standout prospect who could move the needle in trade conversations, Harry Ford really stands out.

Ford made his MLB debut this past season, logging eight plate appearances in six games. He briefly spelled Cal Raleigh behind home plate and was mainly deployed as a pinch hitter. He went 1-for-6 with an RBI and three strikeouts. Nothing much to write home about.

That said, Ford was outright dominant in Triple-A last season, amassing 16 home runs, 74 RBI and seven stolen bases, with an .868 OPS in just 97 games. He supplies a unique blend of swing IQ, pop and speed for a catcher. But the Mariners already have a catcher in Cal Raleigh — one who finished second in MVP voting last season, and whose impact is deeply felt across the board. From his game management behind the plate, to his 60 home runs, 125 RBI and 14 stolen bases, it’s hard to poke holes in Raleigh’s contributions.

Seattle has attempted to get Ford up to speed in left field, which is a viable path forward, but there’s so much value in a catcher with Ford’s athleticism and offensive upside. As such, he could prove extremely valuable in trade talks — and potentially move the M’s ahead of other top bidders in a competitive market.

LHP Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox already made a huge splash on the trade front, acquiring Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals at a financial discount. But there is still a hunger for another ace behind Garrett Crochet, with names as bold as Tarik Skubal and Hunter Greene floating around Red Sox circles. Perhaps more realistically, Boston is a prime landing spot for Freddy Peralta, MacKenzie Gore or the longtime object of Red Sox fans’ obsession, Joe Ryan.

Should the Red Sox go big-game hunting, expect lefty Payton Tolle to garner a lot of interest around the league. The 23-year-old’s first taste of MLB action was a mixed bag — seven games, three starts with a 6.06 ERA — but Tolle’s fastball was electric in the minors and it profiles as a plus-plus pitch moving forward. His somewhat limited arsenal could be an obstacle, but Tolle has refined his slider and changeup offerings, and his control is far better than most prospects in his age bracket.

As such, if Boston calls about an available ace, you can be damn sure that Tolle’s name will come up. He’s the No. 2 prospect in the Red Sox system and could profile as an everyday option as soon as next season, so Boston won’t trade him lightly. If it’s the right No. 2 arm, however, and Craig Breslow believes he can push the Red Sox into World Series territory, don’t be shocked when Tolle is donning a new uniform in 2026.

OF Spencer Jones, New York Yankees

There are plenty of intriguing pieces in the New York Yankees farm system, but an impending outfield logjam could push 24-year-old centerfielder Spencer Jones, their No. 4 prospect, to the forefront of trade conversations. Jones has been on the radars of Yankees fans for years now, once viewed as almost the second coming of Aaron Judge.

Jones’ stock has cooled a bit in recent years. He strikes out a ton and it’s unclear if his boom-or-bust plate approach can fully translate against MLB competition — even in today’s MLB, when it’s totally normal to trade contact for power. On the other hand, Jones hit .274 with 35 home runs, 29 stolen bases and a .933 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A last season. Listed at 6-foot-7 and 240 pounds, Jones provides a massive intimidation factor at the plate. The dude can mash. And he’s fast, with legitimate defensive equity in centerfield.

The Yankees are expected to sign one of Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger, in all likelihood. Aaron Judge and Trent Grisham are stuck in right and center field, respectively. Judge can’t DH full-time because Giancarlo Stanton is there. Plus, former top prospect Jasson Domínguez is still waiting for more consistent reps in the Bronx.

All that is to say, the path to consistent at-bats at the MLB level is quite complicated for Jones. He could function better as a trade chip. If the Yankees go hunting for a pitcher in particular, several potential trade partners — Detroit, Kansas City, Minnesota, Pittsburgh — would leap at the chance to insert a bat of Jones’ caliber into the lineup and see what happens.

RHP Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies “checked in” on Ketel Marte and should be in the market for the offseason’s best outfield targets, whether it’s Luis Robert Jr., Byron Buxton or Jarren Duran. Andrew Painter, Philly’s No. 1 prospect, should not be made available, except for in the most exclusive of circumstances. Marte — or perhaps a Fernando Tatis Jr. or Tarik Skubal — can at least open the conversation.

Last season was a struggle for Painter as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. There was a long period where Painter felt like a guaranteed midseason call-up, potentially expanding the Phillies’ rotation to six. Instead, he finished the campaign with a 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 22 Triple-A starts. He just never found his footing.

This is not a massive cause for concern, though, as Painter is still just 22 years old. He gets a full offseason now to establish his rhythm and work on command. The stuff is elite. He can kiss 100 MPH on his fastball, with a drooping curveball that misses a ton of bats. He also boasts a quality changeup and a new, hard-biting slider, which gives Painter several ways to attack a hitter. He just needs to locate his pitches more consistently.

If Ranger Suárez leaves in free agency, Painter is next in line for the Phillies. So again, he’s not necessarily trade bait. He’s more of the ultimate trump card if Philadelphia decides to get aggressive in pursuit of upper-echelon stars, be it Ketel Marte, a mystery outfield star, or even Tarik Skubal.

RHP Jonah Tong, New York Mets

The New York Mets are sure to bid on top starting pitchers this offseason. One name recently connected to the Mets: Twins righty Joe Ryan, with Minnesota “believed to like” Jonah Tong, per NY Post’s Jon Heyman.

Tong, New York’s No. 4 prospect, has earned Tim Lincecum comparisons with his extreme vertical, overhead release. The 22-year-old struggled in a brief MLB cameo late in the season, posting a 7.71 ERA across five starts. He finished the Minor League season with a 1.43 ERA across 22 starts, however, so overrreacting to a noisy, small MLB sample — especially at 22 years old — would be ill-advised.

There are some concerns linked to Tong’s slight frame, but the stuff is nasty. He doesn’t crank up the velo much on his fastball, but Tong gets a ton of vertical break out of that high release point. He mixes in a preposterous curveball, a slider and a Vulcan changeup. If Tong can adjust his mentality and display the command he showed in the Minors next season, he’s a potential everyday starter for Minnesota — or for any team willing to fork over a prime No. 1 starter to the Mets.

It helps when New York has other pitching prospects, such as Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat, to fill Tong’s shoes or just cover the tracks. That’s not to say he won’t be missed in Queens — Tong is extremely likable and already a cult favorite — but for the right, win-now arm, he’s a valuable trade chip.